**Military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 by Israel and the United States significantly damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related sites, according to U.S. assessments and satellite analysis.** The IAEA withdrew inspectors after the initial strikes and has since been unable to verify the status or location of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%. U.S. intelligence indicated no resumption of enrichment activities as of early 2026, and the IAEA has reported no evidence of a structured weaponization effort. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and a recent IAEA Board resolution seeking access and stockpile declarations further reflect diplomatic pressure against rapid advancement. These developments have reduced Iran's near-term capacity for the additional steps required for a nuclear test, supporting trader expectations reflected in the 92.5% probability for "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$206,757 Объем
$206,757 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$206,757 Объем
$206,757 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 by Israel and the United States significantly damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related sites, according to U.S. assessments and satellite analysis.** The IAEA withdrew inspectors after the initial strikes and has since been unable to verify the status or location of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%. U.S. intelligence indicated no resumption of enrichment activities as of early 2026, and the IAEA has reported no evidence of a structured weaponization effort. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and a recent IAEA Board resolution seeking access and stockpile declarations further reflect diplomatic pressure against rapid advancement. These developments have reduced Iran's near-term capacity for the additional steps required for a nuclear test, supporting trader expectations reflected in the 92.5% probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$206,757Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 by Israel and the United States significantly damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related sites, according to U.S. assessments and satellite analysis.** The IAEA withdrew inspectors after the initial strikes and has since been unable to verify the status or location of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%. U.S. intelligence indicated no resumption of enrichment activities as of early 2026, and the IAEA has reported no evidence of a structured weaponization effort. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and a recent IAEA Board resolution seeking access and stockpile declarations further reflect diplomatic pressure against rapid advancement. These developments have reduced Iran's near-term capacity for the additional steps required for a nuclear test, supporting trader expectations reflected in the 92.5% probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$206,757Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 by Israel and the United States significantly damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related sites, according to U.S. assessments and satellite analysis.** The IAEA withdrew inspectors after the initial strikes and has since been unable to verify the status or location of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%. U.S. intelligence indicated no resumption of enrichment activities as of early 2026, and the IAEA has reported no evidence of a structured weaponization effort. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and a recent IAEA Board resolution seeking access and stockpile declarations further reflect diplomatic pressure against rapid advancement. These developments have reduced Iran's near-term capacity for the additional steps required for a nuclear test, supporting trader expectations reflected in the 92.5% probability for "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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