Russia's continued reliance on hybrid operations—such as cyberattacks, drone incursions, and sabotage—below the threshold of a clear armed attack has kept direct triggers for NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause remote through mid-2026. Alliance members reaffirmed their "ironclad commitment" to Article 5 at the July Ankara summit while providing sustained support for Ukraine, and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate any Russian test of resolve via limited incursion remains low-probability in the near term. Deterrence, unanimous North Atlantic Council requirements, and the absence of conventional escalation from the Ukraine conflict reinforce trader expectations that invocation before 2027 is unlikely. A sudden shift in Russian tactics or major miscalculation could still alter this consensus.