Russia’s State Duma election is scheduled for 18–20 September 2026, with roughly 111 million registered voters. Regional officials have received directives to target turnout near 50 percent, consistent with Kremlin guidance aimed at demonstrating legitimacy while avoiding an overly mobilized result that could raise questions. State pollster VTsIOM reported 66 percent of respondents claiming intent to participate, yet Levada data showed limited public awareness of the date, and historical legislative turnout has often fallen below expressed intentions. Expanded remote electronic voting in dozens of regions, three-day balloting, and administrative pressure on public-sector employees provide mechanisms to calibrate participation. These factors underpin trader positioning around the 50–53 percent range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent mid-50s buckets reflecting uncertainty over implementation and electronic systems.