Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AEMET's high-resolution models indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 5 will most likely fall in the 35–37 °C range, with 36 °C emerging as the modal outcome. This consensus arises from persistent subtropical ridge conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, typical for early August, combined with limited moisture and moderate northeasterly flow that suppresses stronger warming. Historical August maxima average near 33 °C, yet current model spreads remain narrow, with minimal divergence between runs and no incoming Atlantic fronts expected before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and 12z model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 5 августа?
36°C 55%
35°C 33%
37°C 13%
34°C 1.0%
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
33%
36°C
55%
37°C
13%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 55%
35°C 33%
37°C 13%
34°C 1.0%
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
33%
36°C
55%
37°C
13%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AEMET's high-resolution models indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 5 will most likely fall in the 35–37 °C range, with 36 °C emerging as the modal outcome. This consensus arises from persistent subtropical ridge conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, typical for early August, combined with limited moisture and moderate northeasterly flow that suppresses stronger warming. Historical August maxima average near 33 °C, yet current model spreads remain narrow, with minimal divergence between runs and no incoming Atlantic fronts expected before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and 12z model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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