Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress—currently 218–212 in the House and 53–45 in the Senate—have kept formal impeachment proceedings off the agenda despite occasional Democratic resolutions and calls tied to specific statements or policy disputes. The 2026 midterms, scheduled for November, represent the primary near-term variable that could alter House control, yet even a Democratic majority would face the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold that has never been met in prior Trump cases and remains improbable under current partisan alignment. Traders assign near-certainty to “no” because historical patterns show slim prospects for bipartisan consensus on removal absent extraordinary, widely corroborated developments capable of shifting enough Republican votes in the upper chamber before year-end.