Traders assign a 96.7% probability that President Trump will not acquire Greenland before 2027 because Danish and Greenlandic officials have repeatedly rejected any transfer of sovereignty, European NATO partners have signaled firm opposition, and early 2026 tariff threats and military discussions produced only a limited framework agreement on Arctic security, mineral rights, and basing rather than full U.S. control. Greenlandic public opinion remains overwhelmingly against incorporation, while any deal would require complex negotiations, potential Senate treaty ratification, and substantial concessions that have not materialized in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid alignment on a Compact of Free Association, major Arctic security developments involving Russia or China, or unexpected shifts in Greenlandic independence preferences before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
4% chance
$35,301,985 Vol.
$35,301,985 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$35,301,985 Vol.
$35,301,985 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.7% probability that President Trump will not acquire Greenland before 2027 because Danish and Greenlandic officials have repeatedly rejected any transfer of sovereignty, European NATO partners have signaled firm opposition, and early 2026 tariff threats and military discussions produced only a limited framework agreement on Arctic security, mineral rights, and basing rather than full U.S. control. Greenlandic public opinion remains overwhelmingly against incorporation, while any deal would require complex negotiations, potential Senate treaty ratification, and substantial concessions that have not materialized in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid alignment on a Compact of Free Association, major Arctic security developments involving Russia or China, or unexpected shifts in Greenlandic independence preferences before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$35,301,985Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.7% probability that President Trump will not acquire Greenland before 2027 because Danish and Greenlandic officials have repeatedly rejected any transfer of sovereignty, European NATO partners have signaled firm opposition, and early 2026 tariff threats and military discussions produced only a limited framework agreement on Arctic security, mineral rights, and basing rather than full U.S. control. Greenlandic public opinion remains overwhelmingly against incorporation, while any deal would require complex negotiations, potential Senate treaty ratification, and substantial concessions that have not materialized in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid alignment on a Compact of Free Association, major Arctic security developments involving Russia or China, or unexpected shifts in Greenlandic independence preferences before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$35,301,985Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.7% probability that President Trump will not acquire Greenland before 2027 because Danish and Greenlandic officials have repeatedly rejected any transfer of sovereignty, European NATO partners have signaled firm opposition, and early 2026 tariff threats and military discussions produced only a limited framework agreement on Arctic security, mineral rights, and basing rather than full U.S. control. Greenlandic public opinion remains overwhelmingly against incorporation, while any deal would require complex negotiations, potential Senate treaty ratification, and substantial concessions that have not materialized in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid alignment on a Compact of Free Association, major Arctic security developments involving Russia or China, or unexpected shifts in Greenlandic independence preferences before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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