US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, shifting focus from the prior “Davidson Window.” Trader consensus at 91.5% for no invasion by June 2027 reflects this view alongside Beijing’s pattern of coercive actions—such as reduced ADIZ incursions and persistent coast guard patrols east of Taiwan—rather than large-scale amphibious preparations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of supply-chain resilience, further underscore defensive readiness. High economic and military risks for any full-scale operation continue to support the implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?
A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?
Sim
9% chance
$419,690 Vol.
$419,690 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sim
9% chance
$419,690 Vol.
$419,690 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, shifting focus from the prior “Davidson Window.” Trader consensus at 91.5% for no invasion by June 2027 reflects this view alongside Beijing’s pattern of coercive actions—such as reduced ADIZ incursions and persistent coast guard patrols east of Taiwan—rather than large-scale amphibious preparations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of supply-chain resilience, further underscore defensive readiness. High economic and military risks for any full-scale operation continue to support the implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$419,690Data de Término
30 jun 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, shifting focus from the prior “Davidson Window.” Trader consensus at 91.5% for no invasion by June 2027 reflects this view alongside Beijing’s pattern of coercive actions—such as reduced ADIZ incursions and persistent coast guard patrols east of Taiwan—rather than large-scale amphibious preparations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of supply-chain resilience, further underscore defensive readiness. High economic and military risks for any full-scale operation continue to support the implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,690Data de Término
30 jun 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, shifting focus from the prior “Davidson Window.” Trader consensus at 91.5% for no invasion by June 2027 reflects this view alongside Beijing’s pattern of coercive actions—such as reduced ADIZ incursions and persistent coast guard patrols east of Taiwan—rather than large-scale amphibious preparations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of supply-chain resilience, further underscore defensive readiness. High economic and military risks for any full-scale operation continue to support the implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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