The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–June 2026 U.S.–Israel conflict underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that it will remain in power through 2026. Major demonstrations erupted in late December 2025 amid economic crisis and external strikes but were quelled by mid-January 2026 through mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet blackouts, with security apparatus showing no significant defections. Subsequent leadership continuity, intensified repression including high execution rates, and assessments by Israeli officials that conditions do not favor imminent popular overthrow have reinforced expectations of survival. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no renewed nationwide challenge materializing, traders price in the low probability of rapid regime change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
7% chance
$24,795,729 Vol.
$24,795,729 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$24,795,729 Vol.
$24,795,729 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–June 2026 U.S.–Israel conflict underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that it will remain in power through 2026. Major demonstrations erupted in late December 2025 amid economic crisis and external strikes but were quelled by mid-January 2026 through mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet blackouts, with security apparatus showing no significant defections. Subsequent leadership continuity, intensified repression including high execution rates, and assessments by Israeli officials that conditions do not favor imminent popular overthrow have reinforced expectations of survival. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no renewed nationwide challenge materializing, traders price in the low probability of rapid regime change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$24,795,729Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–June 2026 U.S.–Israel conflict underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that it will remain in power through 2026. Major demonstrations erupted in late December 2025 amid economic crisis and external strikes but were quelled by mid-January 2026 through mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet blackouts, with security apparatus showing no significant defections. Subsequent leadership continuity, intensified repression including high execution rates, and assessments by Israeli officials that conditions do not favor imminent popular overthrow have reinforced expectations of survival. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no renewed nationwide challenge materializing, traders price in the low probability of rapid regime change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,795,729Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–June 2026 U.S.–Israel conflict underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that it will remain in power through 2026. Major demonstrations erupted in late December 2025 amid economic crisis and external strikes but were quelled by mid-January 2026 through mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet blackouts, with security apparatus showing no significant defections. Subsequent leadership continuity, intensified repression including high execution rates, and assessments by Israeli officials that conditions do not favor imminent popular overthrow have reinforced expectations of survival. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no renewed nationwide challenge materializing, traders price in the low probability of rapid regime change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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