The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, surviving U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, containing subsequent protests, and tightening internal security controls. Reza Pahlavi, long positioned in exile as a potential transitional figure advocating secular democracy and a referendum-based system, has seen momentum stall amid fragmented opposition groups, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support ranging from roughly one-third to under half favorable, and absence of decisive international endorsement. Traders assign only a 3-4% chance of him leading in 2026 due to these institutional barriers, his decades outside Iran, and the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges. Narrow pathways remain open via late-year escalations, coordinated uprisings, or negotiated arrangements, though current conditions constrain those outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoReza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Reza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Sim
3% chance
$11,704,367 Vol.
$11,704,367 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
3% chance
$11,704,367 Vol.
$11,704,367 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, surviving U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, containing subsequent protests, and tightening internal security controls. Reza Pahlavi, long positioned in exile as a potential transitional figure advocating secular democracy and a referendum-based system, has seen momentum stall amid fragmented opposition groups, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support ranging from roughly one-third to under half favorable, and absence of decisive international endorsement. Traders assign only a 3-4% chance of him leading in 2026 due to these institutional barriers, his decades outside Iran, and the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges. Narrow pathways remain open via late-year escalations, coordinated uprisings, or negotiated arrangements, though current conditions constrain those outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,704,367Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, surviving U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, containing subsequent protests, and tightening internal security controls. Reza Pahlavi, long positioned in exile as a potential transitional figure advocating secular democracy and a referendum-based system, has seen momentum stall amid fragmented opposition groups, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support ranging from roughly one-third to under half favorable, and absence of decisive international endorsement. Traders assign only a 3-4% chance of him leading in 2026 due to these institutional barriers, his decades outside Iran, and the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges. Narrow pathways remain open via late-year escalations, coordinated uprisings, or negotiated arrangements, though current conditions constrain those outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,704,367Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through mid-2026, surviving U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, containing subsequent protests, and tightening internal security controls. Reza Pahlavi, long positioned in exile as a potential transitional figure advocating secular democracy and a referendum-based system, has seen momentum stall amid fragmented opposition groups, donor dissatisfaction, limited domestic polling support ranging from roughly one-third to under half favorable, and absence of decisive international endorsement. Traders assign only a 3-4% chance of him leading in 2026 due to these institutional barriers, his decades outside Iran, and the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges. Narrow pathways remain open via late-year escalations, coordinated uprisings, or negotiated arrangements, though current conditions constrain those outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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