Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 70.5% due to the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent edge in recent polling averages and seat projections ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. The PQ has held around 29% support in late August and early September surveys, translating to projections of a plurality or minority government in models from 338Canada and others, bolstered by strong francophone backing and the party’s focus on government efficiency, education overhaul, and a delayed sovereignty referendum. Christine Fréchette trails at 24.9% as CAQ leader and incumbent premier since April, with her party at roughly 24% amid efforts to highlight economic stability and counter independence concerns, though seat forecasts show limited recovery. Charles Milliard and minor-party leaders register minimal probabilities consistent with their lower polling positions in a fragmented race.