**Current forecasts from multiple sources indicate an overnight low near 17°C for Paris on August 31, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light southwest winds and possible drizzle.** This positions 17°C as the clear market leader at 66.5% implied probability, followed by 16°C (18.5%) and 18°C (12.0%). Scientific drivers include the seasonal transition at the end of August, when Paris experiences moderating Atlantic air masses that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover reduces heat loss to space, while southwesterly flow advects milder maritime air, keeping minimum temperatures above the long-term average low of ~13.4°C. Earlier in August 2026, temperatures ran several degrees above normal, but a cooling trend over the past week—with highs dropping into the low 20s°C—has stabilized the overnight range. Recent model consensus and agency guidance show little spread, with most runs clustering the minimum between 16–18°C. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing skies or wind shifts overnight; sustained clouds and winds above 10–15 km/h favor the 17°C outcome, while unexpected clearing could allow a dip toward 16°C or lower. Updated Météo-France runs and final observational data on the morning of September 1 will determine the official recorded low.