Recent forecasts from models such as GFS place Milan's September 1 minimum temperature in the 18–21 °C range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Lingering late-summer warmth combined with light easterly or northerly winds and variable cloud cover limits radiative cooling overnight in the Po Valley, while moderate humidity prevents sharper drops. Small differences among leading probabilities reflect uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or calmer conditions could push the low toward 18 °C, whereas increased cloud or breeze may hold it near 20–21 °C. Updated model runs and local observations in the final 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.