**Persistent high pressure and elevated dew points are anchoring Houston's overnight minimum near the upper 70s on August 30, 2026.** National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus project mostly clear skies with light south-to-southwest winds of 5–10 mph, permitting modest radiational cooling after sunset but limiting further drops due to dew points near 75 °F that sustain high humidity (70–90 % overnight). This setup keeps the low in the 78–81 °F range, several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~75–77 °F. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 74–79 °F reflects small remaining uncertainties in exact minimum timing, local station differences (e.g., Hobby vs. Intercontinental), and any isolated late-evening cloud or convection that could modestly suppress cooling. Stronger winds or earlier cloud cover would favor the upper end of that band, while perfectly clear, calm conditions could edge toward the mid-70s. No significant frontal passage or air-mass change is expected before dawn, so the outcome hinges primarily on the efficiency of nocturnal heat loss under the current moist subtropical regime.