**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.** Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage. With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 7 de setembro?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 7 de setembro?
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230+ 12%
NOVO
$35,434 Vol.
NOVO
$35,434 Vol.
13 set 2026
<170
11%
170-189
31%
190-209
25%
210-229
24%
230+
11%
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230+ 12%
NOVO
$35,434 Vol.
NOVO
$35,434 Vol.
13 set 2026
<170
$13,723 Vol.
11%
170-189
$140 Vol.
31%
190-209
$201 Vol.
25%
210-229
$170 Vol.
24%
230+
$21,199 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.**
Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage.
With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$35,434Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.**
Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage.
With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$35,434Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.** Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage. With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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