**Intensified US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, combined with a naval blockade and sharply reduced Iranian oil exports, have driven the rial to record lows near 2.2 million per USD on the free market as of early September 2026.** Oil loadings fell to roughly 220,000–255,000 barrels per day in August from much higher prior levels, cutting a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between the official rate (around 1.5 million) and street rates. This pressure, alongside high inflation and limited central bank reserves for intervention (despite pledges of up to $2 billion in support), has accelerated depreciation since late August. Traders price the 2.8–3.1 million range highest, reflecting expectations that ongoing restrictions on trade, secondary sanctions risks, and forex shortages will push the rate further by month-end absent major diplomatic shifts. The closely contested lower bands capture uncertainty around potential Iranian countermeasures or temporary stabilization efforts.