**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage continue to suppress normal commercial flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while raw AIS counts hold in a constrained range.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings around 223–269 in mid-to-late August 2026, with the week of 10–16 August at 223 AIS-trackable transits and the week ending around 24 August near 269. These figures include elevated shares of ballast, sanctioned, and dark (AIS-off) movements, while laden commercial transits—especially tankers—remain well below pre-2023 crisis baselines. War-risk premiums have risen sharply again following the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan and earlier incidents, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional and accelerating some Asia-Europe services back via the Cape. This environment supports trader consensus around 170–209 transits for the week of August 31, as persistent targeting risks and higher insurance costs limit full normalization even as select operators test limited returns. Volumes could edge higher only if attacks subside or more shadow-fleet activity fills gaps, but downside pressure from rerouting or further deterrence keeps the distribution centered in that band.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 31 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 31 de agosto?
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
NOVO
$24,342 Vol.
NOVO
$24,342 Vol.
6 set 2026
<170
3%
170-189
33%
190-209
43%
210-229
8%
230+
16%
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
NOVO
$24,342 Vol.
NOVO
$24,342 Vol.
6 set 2026
<170
$116 Vol.
3%
170-189
$116 Vol.
33%
190-209
$2,069 Vol.
43%
210-229
$8,983 Vol.
8%
230+
$13,058 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage continue to suppress normal commercial flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while raw AIS counts hold in a constrained range.**
Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings around 223–269 in mid-to-late August 2026, with the week of 10–16 August at 223 AIS-trackable transits and the week ending around 24 August near 269. These figures include elevated shares of ballast, sanctioned, and dark (AIS-off) movements, while laden commercial transits—especially tankers—remain well below pre-2023 crisis baselines. War-risk premiums have risen sharply again following the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan and earlier incidents, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional and accelerating some Asia-Europe services back via the Cape.
This environment supports trader consensus around 170–209 transits for the week of August 31, as persistent targeting risks and higher insurance costs limit full normalization even as select operators test limited returns. Volumes could edge higher only if attacks subside or more shadow-fleet activity fills gaps, but downside pressure from rerouting or further deterrence keeps the distribution centered in that band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$24,342Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage continue to suppress normal commercial flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while raw AIS counts hold in a constrained range.**
Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings around 223–269 in mid-to-late August 2026, with the week of 10–16 August at 223 AIS-trackable transits and the week ending around 24 August near 269. These figures include elevated shares of ballast, sanctioned, and dark (AIS-off) movements, while laden commercial transits—especially tankers—remain well below pre-2023 crisis baselines. War-risk premiums have risen sharply again following the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan and earlier incidents, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional and accelerating some Asia-Europe services back via the Cape.
This environment supports trader consensus around 170–209 transits for the week of August 31, as persistent targeting risks and higher insurance costs limit full normalization even as select operators test limited returns. Volumes could edge higher only if attacks subside or more shadow-fleet activity fills gaps, but downside pressure from rerouting or further deterrence keeps the distribution centered in that band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$24,342Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage continue to suppress normal commercial flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while raw AIS counts hold in a constrained range.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings around 223–269 in mid-to-late August 2026, with the week of 10–16 August at 223 AIS-trackable transits and the week ending around 24 August near 269. These figures include elevated shares of ballast, sanctioned, and dark (AIS-off) movements, while laden commercial transits—especially tankers—remain well below pre-2023 crisis baselines. War-risk premiums have risen sharply again following the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan and earlier incidents, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional and accelerating some Asia-Europe services back via the Cape. This environment supports trader consensus around 170–209 transits for the week of August 31, as persistent targeting risks and higher insurance costs limit full normalization even as select operators test limited returns. Volumes could edge higher only if attacks subside or more shadow-fleet activity fills gaps, but downside pressure from rerouting or further deterrence keeps the distribution centered in that band.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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