Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels and persistent US-Iran tensions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the market's leading outcome for the week of August 24. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity-vessel counts stuck in the single digits, with a 7-day average near 3-4 against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 73, reflecting selective permissions, AIS-dark sailings, and rerouting by major carriers. The ongoing stalemate, including Iran's conditional approvals for limited Iraqi tankers and conflicting claims over control of northern versus southern routes, reinforces trader consensus around subdued volumes rather than a rebound toward 50-plus. Key near-term catalysts include any shift in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or fresh maritime incident reports that could alter implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 24 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 24 de agosto?
25-49 55%
<25 33%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.7%
NOVO
NOVO
30 ago 2026
<25
33%
25-49
55%
50-74
8%
75-99
3%
100+
2%
25-49 55%
<25 33%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.7%
NOVO
NOVO
30 ago 2026
<25
$330 Vol.
33%
25-49
$355 Vol.
55%
50-74
$71 Vol.
8%
75-99
$109 Vol.
3%
100+
$62 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels and persistent US-Iran tensions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the market's leading outcome for the week of August 24. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity-vessel counts stuck in the single digits, with a 7-day average near 3-4 against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 73, reflecting selective permissions, AIS-dark sailings, and rerouting by major carriers. The ongoing stalemate, including Iran's conditional approvals for limited Iraqi tankers and conflicting claims over control of northern versus southern routes, reinforces trader consensus around subdued volumes rather than a rebound toward 50-plus. Key near-term catalysts include any shift in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or fresh maritime incident reports that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$926Data de Término
30 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels and persistent US-Iran tensions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the market's leading outcome for the week of August 24. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity-vessel counts stuck in the single digits, with a 7-day average near 3-4 against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 73, reflecting selective permissions, AIS-dark sailings, and rerouting by major carriers. The ongoing stalemate, including Iran's conditional approvals for limited Iraqi tankers and conflicting claims over control of northern versus southern routes, reinforces trader consensus around subdued volumes rather than a rebound toward 50-plus. Key near-term catalysts include any shift in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or fresh maritime incident reports that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$926Data de Término
30 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels and persistent US-Iran tensions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 25-49 ship range as the market's leading outcome for the week of August 24. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity-vessel counts stuck in the single digits, with a 7-day average near 3-4 against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 73, reflecting selective permissions, AIS-dark sailings, and rerouting by major carriers. The ongoing stalemate, including Iran's conditional approvals for limited Iraqi tankers and conflicting claims over control of northern versus southern routes, reinforces trader consensus around subdued volumes rather than a rebound toward 50-plus. Key near-term catalysts include any shift in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or fresh maritime incident reports that could alter implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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