The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, occurs in a managed political system where United Russia maintains dominance through the mixed electoral rules allocating 225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and WCIOM place LDPR support at 8–14%, consistent with its post-2021 trajectory and the party's nationalist positioning under Leonid Slutsky following Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s death. This level typically yields 30–60 total seats, keeping outcomes below 45 the most probable range in trader assessments. LDPR’s limited single-member competitiveness, organizational strains in several regions, and the broader constraints on systemic opposition parties reinforce the current consensus. A material shift above 45 seats would require substantially stronger district results or adjustments in seat allocation dynamics than recent patterns indicate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<45 91%
45–54 3.9%
55–64 3.3%
65–74 3.0%
<45
91%
45–54
4%
55–64
3%
65–74
3%
75–84
2%
85–94
2%
95+
2%
<45 91%
45–54 3.9%
55–64 3.3%
65–74 3.0%
<45
91%
45–54
4%
55–64
3%
65–74
3%
75–84
2%
85–94
2%
95+
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, occurs in a managed political system where United Russia maintains dominance through the mixed electoral rules allocating 225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and WCIOM place LDPR support at 8–14%, consistent with its post-2021 trajectory and the party's nationalist positioning under Leonid Slutsky following Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s death. This level typically yields 30–60 total seats, keeping outcomes below 45 the most probable range in trader assessments. LDPR’s limited single-member competitiveness, organizational strains in several regions, and the broader constraints on systemic opposition parties reinforce the current consensus. A material shift above 45 seats would require substantially stronger district results or adjustments in seat allocation dynamics than recent patterns indicate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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O Novo Povo (NL) ganhará menos de 35 cadeiras na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal Russa?
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