The election for Russia's 450-seat State Duma is set for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed system of proportional representation and single-member districts. Recent official polls from FOM and WCIOM place KPRF support at roughly 9–14 percent, projecting 58–73 seats depending on the model, while independent surveys indicate even softer underlying backing amid economic pressures and war fatigue. Traders price the <60 seat brackets highest because administrative measures—including candidate sidelining in key constituencies, regional detentions targeting party structures, and competition for protest votes from LDPR and New People—limit upside potential in the single-member half of the ballot. KPRF's established regional organization provides a floor near its current 56 seats, but the Kremlin-aligned electoral framework favors outcomes clustered in the lower ranges absent major late shifts in turnout or registration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<50 48%
50–59 38%
60–69 8%
100+ 3.5%
<50
48%
50–59
38%
60–69
8%
70–79
3%
80–89
1%
90–99
2%
100+
4%
<50 48%
50–59 38%
60–69 8%
100+ 3.5%
<50
48%
50–59
38%
60–69
8%
70–79
3%
80–89
1%
90–99
2%
100+
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The election for Russia's 450-seat State Duma is set for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed system of proportional representation and single-member districts. Recent official polls from FOM and WCIOM place KPRF support at roughly 9–14 percent, projecting 58–73 seats depending on the model, while independent surveys indicate even softer underlying backing amid economic pressures and war fatigue. Traders price the <60 seat brackets highest because administrative measures—including candidate sidelining in key constituencies, regional detentions targeting party structures, and competition for protest votes from LDPR and New People—limit upside potential in the single-member half of the ballot. KPRF's established regional organization provides a floor near its current 56 seats, but the Kremlin-aligned electoral framework favors outcomes clustered in the lower ranges absent major late shifts in turnout or registration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O Partido Liberal Democrata da Rússia (LDPR) ganhará menos de 45 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal russa?
A Rússia Unida ganhará entre 325 e 339 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?
O Novo Povo (NL) ganhará menos de 35 cadeiras na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal Russa?
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