The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability on 32°C stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official post-event confirmation of that exact daily maximum on September 11, 2026. This aligns with observed conditions under a strengthening northeast monsoon flow that delivered mostly fine skies, light winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling peak insolation and afternoon temperatures near seasonal September averages of 30–32°C. Traders priced in the final recorded value once preliminary observations and the agency’s daily extract aligned on 32°C, leaving negligible room for other bins. Only an unexpected revision to the official absolute daily maximum or a change in resolution criteria could realistically alter the outcome at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 11 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 11 de setembro?
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C ou menos <1%
27°C <1%
$113,339 Vol.
$113,339 Vol.
11 set 2026
26°C ou menos
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C ou mais
<1%
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C ou menos <1%
27°C <1%
$113,339 Vol.
$113,339 Vol.
11 set 2026
26°C ou menos
$265 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,467 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$11,271 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$12,940 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$20,940 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$16,005 Vol.
100%
33°C
$28,058 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,661 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
36°C ou mais
$230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability on 32°C stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official post-event confirmation of that exact daily maximum on September 11, 2026. This aligns with observed conditions under a strengthening northeast monsoon flow that delivered mostly fine skies, light winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling peak insolation and afternoon temperatures near seasonal September averages of 30–32°C. Traders priced in the final recorded value once preliminary observations and the agency’s daily extract aligned on 32°C, leaving negligible room for other bins. Only an unexpected revision to the official absolute daily maximum or a change in resolution criteria could realistically alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$113,339Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability on 32°C stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official post-event confirmation of that exact daily maximum on September 11, 2026. This aligns with observed conditions under a strengthening northeast monsoon flow that delivered mostly fine skies, light winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling peak insolation and afternoon temperatures near seasonal September averages of 30–32°C. Traders priced in the final recorded value once preliminary observations and the agency’s daily extract aligned on 32°C, leaving negligible room for other bins. Only an unexpected revision to the official absolute daily maximum or a change in resolution criteria could realistically alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$113,339Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability on 32°C stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official post-event confirmation of that exact daily maximum on September 11, 2026. This aligns with observed conditions under a strengthening northeast monsoon flow that delivered mostly fine skies, light winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling peak insolation and afternoon temperatures near seasonal September averages of 30–32°C. Traders priced in the final recorded value once preliminary observations and the agency’s daily extract aligned on 32°C, leaving negligible room for other bins. Only an unexpected revision to the official absolute daily maximum or a change in resolution criteria could realistically alter the outcome at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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