Florida's 22nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in spring 2026, producing a new map with a Republican-leaning partisan voting index of R+4 and shifting the seat from prior Democratic control to a Lean Republican rating by outlets such as the Cook Political Report. This structural change, approved during a special legislative session and signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has positioned Republican primary contenders—including Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser—to hold an edge heading into the August 18, 2026 primary and the November general election. Competitive Democratic primary polling between Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley, combined with the district's expanded geographic and demographic mix stretching from Broward to Southwest Florida, has reinforced trader consensus around a Republican general-election advantage while leaving room for shifts based on primary outcomes and turnout patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa FL-22
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa FL-22
$39,080 Vol.
$39,080 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
62%
Partido Democrata
38%
$39,080 Vol.
$39,080 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$22,425 Vol.
62%
Partido Democrata
$16,655 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 22nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in spring 2026, producing a new map with a Republican-leaning partisan voting index of R+4 and shifting the seat from prior Democratic control to a Lean Republican rating by outlets such as the Cook Political Report. This structural change, approved during a special legislative session and signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has positioned Republican primary contenders—including Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser—to hold an edge heading into the August 18, 2026 primary and the November general election. Competitive Democratic primary polling between Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley, combined with the district's expanded geographic and demographic mix stretching from Broward to Southwest Florida, has reinforced trader consensus around a Republican general-election advantage while leaving room for shifts based on primary outcomes and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$39,080Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 22nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in spring 2026, producing a new map with a Republican-leaning partisan voting index of R+4 and shifting the seat from prior Democratic control to a Lean Republican rating by outlets such as the Cook Political Report. This structural change, approved during a special legislative session and signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has positioned Republican primary contenders—including Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser—to hold an edge heading into the August 18, 2026 primary and the November general election. Competitive Democratic primary polling between Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley, combined with the district's expanded geographic and demographic mix stretching from Broward to Southwest Florida, has reinforced trader consensus around a Republican general-election advantage while leaving room for shifts based on primary outcomes and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,080Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 22nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in spring 2026, producing a new map with a Republican-leaning partisan voting index of R+4 and shifting the seat from prior Democratic control to a Lean Republican rating by outlets such as the Cook Political Report. This structural change, approved during a special legislative session and signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has positioned Republican primary contenders—including Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser—to hold an edge heading into the August 18, 2026 primary and the November general election. Competitive Democratic primary polling between Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley, combined with the district's expanded geographic and demographic mix stretching from Broward to Southwest Florida, has reinforced trader consensus around a Republican general-election advantage while leaving room for shifts based on primary outcomes and turnout patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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