Augusto Cury and Renan Santos remain the leading contenders for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with their near-even implied probabilities reflecting recent polling gains among voters disillusioned by the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Cury’s rise stems from media appearances and appeal to educated younger voters seeking a non-polarized option, while Santos benefits from his anti-establishment profile tied to the Movimento Brasil Livre and attacks on both major camps. Ronaldo Caiado trails as a more conventional centre-right alternative with lower single-digit support. Upcoming debates and free television time could shift momentum among these lower-polling candidates before ballots are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAugusto Cury 45.2%
Renan Santos 38%
Ronaldo Caiado 16%
Flávio Bolsonaro <1%
$1,161,433 Vol.
$1,161,433 Vol.
3 out 2026
Augusto Cury
45%
Renan Santos
38%
Ronaldo Caiado
16%
Flávio Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Augusto Cury 45.2%
Renan Santos 38%
Ronaldo Caiado 16%
Flávio Bolsonaro <1%
$1,161,433 Vol.
$1,161,433 Vol.
3 out 2026
Augusto Cury
$197,474 Vol.
45%
Renan Santos
$309,922 Vol.
38%
Ronaldo Caiado
$129,964 Vol.
16%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$72,886 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$54,419 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$65,858 Vol.
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$52,153 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$16,773 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,847 Vol.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$23,204 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$20,815 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$46,212 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$104,208 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$13,084 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$11,811 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$9,865 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$9,374 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$4,083 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$3,481 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury and Renan Santos remain the leading contenders for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with their near-even implied probabilities reflecting recent polling gains among voters disillusioned by the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Cury’s rise stems from media appearances and appeal to educated younger voters seeking a non-polarized option, while Santos benefits from his anti-establishment profile tied to the Movimento Brasil Livre and attacks on both major camps. Ronaldo Caiado trails as a more conventional centre-right alternative with lower single-digit support. Upcoming debates and free television time could shift momentum among these lower-polling candidates before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,161,433Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury and Renan Santos remain the leading contenders for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with their near-even implied probabilities reflecting recent polling gains among voters disillusioned by the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Cury’s rise stems from media appearances and appeal to educated younger voters seeking a non-polarized option, while Santos benefits from his anti-establishment profile tied to the Movimento Brasil Livre and attacks on both major camps. Ronaldo Caiado trails as a more conventional centre-right alternative with lower single-digit support. Upcoming debates and free television time could shift momentum among these lower-polling candidates before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,161,433Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Augusto Cury and Renan Santos remain the leading contenders for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with their near-even implied probabilities reflecting recent polling gains among voters disillusioned by the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro contest. Cury’s rise stems from media appearances and appeal to educated younger voters seeking a non-polarized option, while Santos benefits from his anti-establishment profile tied to the Movimento Brasil Livre and attacks on both major camps. Ronaldo Caiado trails as a more conventional centre-right alternative with lower single-digit support. Upcoming debates and free television time could shift momentum among these lower-polling candidates before ballots are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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