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icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo

icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 8.4%

Renan Santos <1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket

$21,212 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 8.4%

Renan Santos <1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket

$21,212 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$6,890 Vol.

89%

icon for Lula

Lula

$7,394 Vol.

8%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,360 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$543 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$714 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$427 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$426 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$421 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$418 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$588 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$426 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$417 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro holds a strong position in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting the state’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral base and consistent right-leaning preferences.** Recent July surveys from Quaest and Datafolha showed him statistically tied with or narrowly ahead of incumbent Lula (PT) at around 34-35% each, with all other tested names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in low single digits. São Paulo voters have registered higher rejection of Lula than of the PL senator. Flávio’s July convention launch in the state capital, endorsement by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and the September 7 Paulista Avenue rally emphasizing opposition to the current administration have reinforced his local momentum ahead of the vote. Traders price this outcome as the clear frontrunner based on these state-specific patterns.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$21,212
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro holds a strong position in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting the state’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral base and consistent right-leaning preferences.** Recent July surveys from Quaest and Datafolha showed him statistically tied with or narrowly ahead of incumbent Lula (PT) at around 34-35% each, with all other tested names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in low single digits. São Paulo voters have registered higher rejection of Lula than of the PL senator. Flávio’s July convention launch in the state capital, endorsement by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and the September 7 Paulista Avenue rally emphasizing opposition to the current administration have reinforced his local momentum ahead of the vote. Traders price this outcome as the clear frontrunner based on these state-specific patterns.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$21,212
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, followed by "Lula" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo" has generated $21.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar em São Paulo" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.