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icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul
Eleições·Eleição Principal

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul

icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul
Eleições·Eleição Principal

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 88%

Lula 13%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$22,073 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 88%

Lula 13%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$22,073 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$7,420 Vol.

88%

icon for Lula

Lula

$3,650 Vol.

13%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$1,437 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$1,171 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,417 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$493 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$858 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,087 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$641 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$1,376 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$759 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,173 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro's dominant position in trader consensus reflects consistent polling leads or technical ties in Rio Grande do Sul first-round surveys, where he has registered 32-42% support against Lula's 30-39% in mid-2026 testing by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. His July 2026 formal nomination as the Liberal Party candidate, backed by international conservative figures, has reinforced expectations of strong regional performance rooted in prior Bolsonarista voting patterns. Lula maintains a secondary but distant share amid national re-election dynamics, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema keeps their implied probabilities low. Upcoming September polling releases and any shifts in alliances or campaign events within the state could still influence final positioning before the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,073
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro's dominant position in trader consensus reflects consistent polling leads or technical ties in Rio Grande do Sul first-round surveys, where he has registered 32-42% support against Lula's 30-39% in mid-2026 testing by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. His July 2026 formal nomination as the Liberal Party candidate, backed by international conservative figures, has reinforced expectations of strong regional performance rooted in prior Bolsonarista voting patterns. Lula maintains a secondary but distant share amid national re-election dynamics, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema keeps their implied probabilities low. Upcoming September polling releases and any shifts in alliances or campaign events within the state could still influence final positioning before the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,073
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 88%, followed by "Lula" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul" has generated $22.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Rio Grande do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.