Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, with state-level polling consistently placing him well ahead of Lula and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data from July and August, show the PL nominee capturing 41-44% of intentions among paranaenses, compared to Lula's 23-30%, reflecting the state's established conservative leanings and alignment with bolsonarista positions. Local alliances, such as coordination with figures like Sergio Moro, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The implied probability in trader consensus accounts for these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or national campaign developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição presidencial no Brasil 1º turno: 1º lugar no Paraná
Eleição presidencial no Brasil 1º turno: 1º lugar no Paraná
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.1%
Renan Santos 1.0%
Zema <1%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
3%
Renan Santos
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.1%
Renan Santos 1.0%
Zema <1%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,120 Vol.
95%
Lula
$330 Vol.
3%
Renan Santos
$336 Vol.
1%
Zema
$517 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$516 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$526 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$544 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$467 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$434 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$511 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$413 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$533 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$521 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, with state-level polling consistently placing him well ahead of Lula and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data from July and August, show the PL nominee capturing 41-44% of intentions among paranaenses, compared to Lula's 23-30%, reflecting the state's established conservative leanings and alignment with bolsonarista positions. Local alliances, such as coordination with figures like Sergio Moro, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The implied probability in trader consensus accounts for these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or national campaign developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$8,767Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, with state-level polling consistently placing him well ahead of Lula and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data from July and August, show the PL nominee capturing 41-44% of intentions among paranaenses, compared to Lula's 23-30%, reflecting the state's established conservative leanings and alignment with bolsonarista positions. Local alliances, such as coordination with figures like Sergio Moro, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The implied probability in trader consensus accounts for these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or national campaign developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,767Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, with state-level polling consistently placing him well ahead of Lula and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data from July and August, show the PL nominee capturing 41-44% of intentions among paranaenses, compared to Lula's 23-30%, reflecting the state's established conservative leanings and alignment with bolsonarista positions. Local alliances, such as coordination with figures like Sergio Moro, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The implied probability in trader consensus accounts for these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or national campaign developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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