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icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul
Eleições·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul

icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul
Eleições·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 96.2%

Clariana Barao 1.0%

Lula <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket

$10,501 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 96.2%

Clariana Barao 1.0%

Lula <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket

$10,501 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$6,112 Vol.

96%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$333 Vol.

1%

icon for Lula

Lula

$518 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$318 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$349 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$395 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$392 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$358 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$273 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$270 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$385 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$426 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$371 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul polling for first-round presidential voting on October 4, reflecting sustained regional support among conservative and agribusiness voters for the Liberal Party nominee. Recent surveys, including an August Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Lula at 27%, confirm this pattern across multiple firms since mid-2026, with limited inroads by Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. His nomination as the standard-bearer for the Bolsonarista field after his father's ineligibility has consolidated right-leaning preferences in the state. Trader consensus prices this outcome highly because no major late shifts, endorsements, or turnout changes have emerged to alter the gap. Scenarios that could narrow it include undecided voters consolidating behind Lula or a surprise surge by a centrist alternative in the final weeks before the vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,501
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul polling for first-round presidential voting on October 4, reflecting sustained regional support among conservative and agribusiness voters for the Liberal Party nominee. Recent surveys, including an August Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Lula at 27%, confirm this pattern across multiple firms since mid-2026, with limited inroads by Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. His nomination as the standard-bearer for the Bolsonarista field after his father's ineligibility has consolidated right-leaning preferences in the state. Trader consensus prices this outcome highly because no major late shifts, endorsements, or turnout changes have emerged to alter the gap. Scenarios that could narrow it include undecided voters consolidating behind Lula or a surprise surge by a centrist alternative in the final weeks before the vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,501
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 96%, followed by "Clariana Barao" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul" has generated $10.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Clariana Barao" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar em Mato Grosso do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.