Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 60 mph with a west-northwest track about 340–420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, will strengthen into a hurricane yet pass just south of the Big Island early Saturday rather than making direct landfall. This offshore trajectory, supported by the latest model consensus and steering patterns, limits the chance of the center crossing Hawaiian land while at Category 1 strength or higher. Heavy rainfall, tropical-storm-force winds, and surf remain likely across the islands, but the revised track has reduced landfall odds and anchored trader consensus around a 67.5% probability of “No.” Updated guidance and the narrow window for intensification before closest approach continue to shape positioning ahead of the weekend.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
29% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
29% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 60 mph with a west-northwest track about 340–420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, will strengthen into a hurricane yet pass just south of the Big Island early Saturday rather than making direct landfall. This offshore trajectory, supported by the latest model consensus and steering patterns, limits the chance of the center crossing Hawaiian land while at Category 1 strength or higher. Heavy rainfall, tropical-storm-force winds, and surf remain likely across the islands, but the revised track has reduced landfall odds and anchored trader consensus around a 67.5% probability of “No.” Updated guidance and the narrow window for intensification before closest approach continue to shape positioning ahead of the weekend.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,196Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 60 mph with a west-northwest track about 340–420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, will strengthen into a hurricane yet pass just south of the Big Island early Saturday rather than making direct landfall. This offshore trajectory, supported by the latest model consensus and steering patterns, limits the chance of the center crossing Hawaiian land while at Category 1 strength or higher. Heavy rainfall, tropical-storm-force winds, and surf remain likely across the islands, but the revised track has reduced landfall odds and anchored trader consensus around a 67.5% probability of “No.” Updated guidance and the narrow window for intensification before closest approach continue to shape positioning ahead of the weekend.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Wolumen
$6,196Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 60 mph with a west-northwest track about 340–420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, will strengthen into a hurricane yet pass just south of the Big Island early Saturday rather than making direct landfall. This offshore trajectory, supported by the latest model consensus and steering patterns, limits the chance of the center crossing Hawaiian land while at Category 1 strength or higher. Heavy rainfall, tropical-storm-force winds, and surf remain likely across the islands, but the revised track has reduced landfall odds and anchored trader consensus around a 67.5% probability of “No.” Updated guidance and the narrow window for intensification before closest approach continue to shape positioning ahead of the weekend.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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