Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and monsoon influences will likely cap Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 15 near 32–33°C, aligning with the market's closely matched leading implied probabilities of 25.5% and 19.5%. High humidity and potential afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in daily maxima, as heavier rainfall or thicker cloud decks could suppress readings toward 31°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, but current conditions following warmer, drier spells on August 13 heighten model spread. Updated runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?
32°C 26%
33°C 22%
34°C 15%
31°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
11%
31°C
14%
32°C
26%
33°C
22%
34°C
15%
35°C
6%
36°C
6%
37°C or higher
6%
32°C 26%
33°C 22%
34°C 15%
31°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$663 Wol.
1%
28°C
$36 Wol.
1%
29°C
$69 Wol.
3%
30°C
$3 Wol.
11%
31°C
$8 Wol.
14%
32°C
$51 Wol.
26%
33°C
$67 Wol.
22%
34°C
$6 Wol.
15%
35°C
$18 Wol.
6%
36°C
$5 Wol.
6%
37°C or higher
$12 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and monsoon influences will likely cap Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 15 near 32–33°C, aligning with the market's closely matched leading implied probabilities of 25.5% and 19.5%. High humidity and potential afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in daily maxima, as heavier rainfall or thicker cloud decks could suppress readings toward 31°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, but current conditions following warmer, drier spells on August 13 heighten model spread. Updated runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$244Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and monsoon influences will likely cap Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 15 near 32–33°C, aligning with the market's closely matched leading implied probabilities of 25.5% and 19.5%. High humidity and potential afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in daily maxima, as heavier rainfall or thicker cloud decks could suppress readings toward 31°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, but current conditions following warmer, drier spells on August 13 heighten model spread. Updated runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$244Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and monsoon influences will likely cap Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 15 near 32–33°C, aligning with the market's closely matched leading implied probabilities of 25.5% and 19.5%. High humidity and potential afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in daily maxima, as heavier rainfall or thicker cloud decks could suppress readings toward 31°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, but current conditions following warmer, drier spells on August 13 heighten model spread. Updated runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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