Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company does Ox Alpha belong to?
Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?
Z.ai 93%
Google 5.0%
Safe Superintelligence 2.7%
Xiaomi 1.6%
NOWE
$22,159 Wol.
NOWE
$22,159 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
93%
5%
Safe Superintelligence
3%
Xiaomi
2%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
Cursor
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot AI
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai 93%
Google 5.0%
Safe Superintelligence 2.7%
Xiaomi 1.6%
NOWE
$22,159 Wol.
NOWE
$22,159 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
$6,568 Wol.
93%
$1,116 Wol.
5%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,030 Wol.
3%
Xiaomi
$892 Wol.
2%
ByteDance
$838 Wol.
1%
Meta
$366 Wol.
1%
Cursor
$902 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$905 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$850 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$704 Wol.
1%
Tencent
$817 Wol.
1%
xAI
$1,023 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot AI
$699 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$713 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$535 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$522 Wol.
<1%
OpenAI
$527 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$545 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$535 Wol.
<1%
Anthropic
$526 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$516 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$665 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$366 Wol.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,159Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$22,159Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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