Recent US data show the labor market remaining resilient, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 after easing from 4.2% the prior month, while headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader sentiment toward the soft-landing or overheating outcomes, both of which require unemployment below 5.0%. Persistent inflation near 3.4%—above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and limited near-term easing signals, sustains the 35.5% probability on overheating. The negligible odds on stagflation or slack reflect the absence of material labor-market deterioration or sharp growth contraction in recent employment and price reports. Market-implied odds therefore embed continued economic resilience through year-end, tempered by uncertainty over whether inflation reaccelerates or resumes its gradual decline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 64%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 2.9%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,099 Wol.
$70,099 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
64%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 64%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 2.9%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,099 Wol.
$70,099 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,818 Wol.
64%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,189 Wol.
36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,603 Wol.
3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,489 Wol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US data show the labor market remaining resilient, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 after easing from 4.2% the prior month, while headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader sentiment toward the soft-landing or overheating outcomes, both of which require unemployment below 5.0%. Persistent inflation near 3.4%—above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and limited near-term easing signals, sustains the 35.5% probability on overheating. The negligible odds on stagflation or slack reflect the absence of material labor-market deterioration or sharp growth contraction in recent employment and price reports. Market-implied odds therefore embed continued economic resilience through year-end, tempered by uncertainty over whether inflation reaccelerates or resumes its gradual decline.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$70,099Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US data show the labor market remaining resilient, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 after easing from 4.2% the prior month, while headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader sentiment toward the soft-landing or overheating outcomes, both of which require unemployment below 5.0%. Persistent inflation near 3.4%—above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and limited near-term easing signals, sustains the 35.5% probability on overheating. The negligible odds on stagflation or slack reflect the absence of material labor-market deterioration or sharp growth contraction in recent employment and price reports. Market-implied odds therefore embed continued economic resilience through year-end, tempered by uncertainty over whether inflation reaccelerates or resumes its gradual decline.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Wolumen
$70,099Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US data show the labor market remaining resilient, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 after easing from 4.2% the prior month, while headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader sentiment toward the soft-landing or overheating outcomes, both of which require unemployment below 5.0%. Persistent inflation near 3.4%—above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% and limited near-term easing signals, sustains the 35.5% probability on overheating. The negligible odds on stagflation or slack reflect the absence of material labor-market deterioration or sharp growth contraction in recent employment and price reports. Market-implied odds therefore embed continued economic resilience through year-end, tempered by uncertainty over whether inflation reaccelerates or resumes its gradual decline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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