Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAugust Unemployment Rate
August Unemployment Rate
4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 21%
4.0% 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
21%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 21%
4.0% 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$110 Wol.
1%
3.9%
$112 Wol.
2%
4.0%
$554 Wol.
13%
4.1%
$2,349 Wol.
32%
4.2%
$1,054 Wol.
28%
4.3%
$639 Wol.
21%
4.4%
$146 Wol.
5%
4.5%
$132 Wol.
3%
≥4.6%
$112 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,208Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$5,208Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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