Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from 4.2% in May, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening and shaped trader views on any 2026 rate hike. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while core measures also moderated, aligning with a policy stance that prioritizes data dependence amid mixed labor signals. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, pricing in limited room for hikes unless subsequent releases like the July CPI due August 12 reverse the trend. Traders monitor upcoming FOMC communications and employment data for shifts in the rate path, as sustained disinflation would reinforce current accommodation and reduce the probability of an upper-bound increase before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$1,896,739 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
60%
October Meeting
65%
$1,896,739 Wol.
September Meeting
$593,700 Wol.
60%
October Meeting
$343,039 Wol.
65%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from 4.2% in May, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening and shaped trader views on any 2026 rate hike. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while core measures also moderated, aligning with a policy stance that prioritizes data dependence amid mixed labor signals. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, pricing in limited room for hikes unless subsequent releases like the July CPI due August 12 reverse the trend. Traders monitor upcoming FOMC communications and employment data for shifts in the rate path, as sustained disinflation would reinforce current accommodation and reduce the probability of an upper-bound increase before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,896,739Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from 4.2% in May, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening and shaped trader views on any 2026 rate hike. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while core measures also moderated, aligning with a policy stance that prioritizes data dependence amid mixed labor signals. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, pricing in limited room for hikes unless subsequent releases like the July CPI due August 12 reverse the trend. Traders monitor upcoming FOMC communications and employment data for shifts in the rate path, as sustained disinflation would reinforce current accommodation and reduce the probability of an upper-bound increase before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,896,739Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from 4.2% in May, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening and shaped trader views on any 2026 rate hike. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while core measures also moderated, aligning with a policy stance that prioritizes data dependence amid mixed labor signals. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, pricing in limited room for hikes unless subsequent releases like the July CPI due August 12 reverse the trend. Traders monitor upcoming FOMC communications and employment data for shifts in the rate path, as sustained disinflation would reinforce current accommodation and reduce the probability of an upper-bound increase before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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