Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant factor behind the 57.5% market-implied odds of no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and the July meeting producing a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, trader consensus reflects a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment alongside resilient economic growth. The 38.0% probability assigned to a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish sentiment and potential September tightening, while low odds on cuts underscore limited downside risks in current data. Upcoming CPI releases and the September FOMC will likely shape further repricing of these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
No change 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
57%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$550 Wol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$598 Wol.
5%
No change
$818 Wol.
57%
25 bps increase
$1,250 Wol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$572 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant factor behind the 57.5% market-implied odds of no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and the July meeting producing a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, trader consensus reflects a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment alongside resilient economic growth. The 38.0% probability assigned to a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish sentiment and potential September tightening, while low odds on cuts underscore limited downside risks in current data. Upcoming CPI releases and the September FOMC will likely shape further repricing of these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,788Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant factor behind the 57.5% market-implied odds of no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and the July meeting producing a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, trader consensus reflects a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment alongside resilient economic growth. The 38.0% probability assigned to a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish sentiment and potential September tightening, while low odds on cuts underscore limited downside risks in current data. Upcoming CPI releases and the September FOMC will likely shape further repricing of these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$3,788Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant factor behind the 57.5% market-implied odds of no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and the July meeting producing a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, trader consensus reflects a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment alongside resilient economic growth. The 38.0% probability assigned to a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish sentiment and potential September tightening, while low odds on cuts underscore limited downside risks in current data. Upcoming CPI releases and the September FOMC will likely shape further repricing of these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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