Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have positioned a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase as the leading December 2026 outcome at 60.5% implied probability. Persistent price pressures from supply shocks and policy factors have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy, consistent with the FOMC’s June dot plot median projection near 3.8% by year-end. The current 3.50–3.75% target range, held steady through multiple meetings, reflects this hawkish tilt, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 61%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$826,018 Wol.
$826,018 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
36%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$826,018 Wol.
$826,018 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$131,944 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$191,777 Wol.
4%
No change
$163,154 Wol.
36%
25 bps increase
$214,365 Wol.
61%
50+ bps increase
$124,778 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have positioned a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase as the leading December 2026 outcome at 60.5% implied probability. Persistent price pressures from supply shocks and policy factors have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy, consistent with the FOMC’s June dot plot median projection near 3.8% by year-end. The current 3.50–3.75% target range, held steady through multiple meetings, reflects this hawkish tilt, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$826,018Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have positioned a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase as the leading December 2026 outcome at 60.5% implied probability. Persistent price pressures from supply shocks and policy factors have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy, consistent with the FOMC’s June dot plot median projection near 3.8% by year-end. The current 3.50–3.75% target range, held steady through multiple meetings, reflects this hawkish tilt, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$826,018Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains, have positioned a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase as the leading December 2026 outcome at 60.5% implied probability. Persistent price pressures from supply shocks and policy factors have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy, consistent with the FOMC’s June dot plot median projection near 3.8% by year-end. The current 3.50–3.75% target range, held steady through multiple meetings, reflects this hawkish tilt, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania