Recent strong U.S. jobs data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% through five straight FOMC meetings amid elevated inflation from supply shocks and energy pressures tied to Middle East tensions, market-implied odds favor one 25-basis-point hike this year at 41.5%, followed by zero or two hikes. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and June dot-plot projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates have supported these probabilities, while upcoming September data releases and the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts influencing the rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$289,259 Wol.
$289,259 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
42%
2 (50 bps)
22%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$289,259 Wol.
$289,259 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$102,227 Wol.
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,256 Wol.
42%
2 (50 bps)
$69,740 Wol.
22%
3 (75 bps)
$31,580 Wol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Wol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent strong U.S. jobs data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% through five straight FOMC meetings amid elevated inflation from supply shocks and energy pressures tied to Middle East tensions, market-implied odds favor one 25-basis-point hike this year at 41.5%, followed by zero or two hikes. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and June dot-plot projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates have supported these probabilities, while upcoming September data releases and the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts influencing the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$289,259Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent strong U.S. jobs data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% through five straight FOMC meetings amid elevated inflation from supply shocks and energy pressures tied to Middle East tensions, market-implied odds favor one 25-basis-point hike this year at 41.5%, followed by zero or two hikes. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and June dot-plot projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates have supported these probabilities, while upcoming September data releases and the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts influencing the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$289,259Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong U.S. jobs data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% through five straight FOMC meetings amid elevated inflation from supply shocks and energy pressures tied to Middle East tensions, market-implied odds favor one 25-basis-point hike this year at 41.5%, followed by zero or two hikes. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and June dot-plot projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates have supported these probabilities, while upcoming September data releases and the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts influencing the rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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