Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% amid Middle East supply shocks and energy pressures, has driven the hawkish tilt in market-implied odds for 2026 rate hikes. The June FOMC dot plot shifted the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection to 3.8%, with nine of 19 officials now seeing at least one 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, while labor market data remain stable with unemployment near 4.2-4.3%. This contrasts with many economists' hold forecasts but aligns with futures pricing roughly 41 basis points of tightening, elevating the 25-basis-point outcome to 42.5% implied probability. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and incoming inflation releases will test whether resilient growth and price pressures sustain this path or allow stabilization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 5.1%
$287,468 Wol.
$287,468 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
30%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 5.1%
$287,468 Wol.
$287,468 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$101,602 Wol.
30%
1 (25 bps)
$47,148 Wol.
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Wol.
23%
3 (75 bps)
$31,570 Wol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Wol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% amid Middle East supply shocks and energy pressures, has driven the hawkish tilt in market-implied odds for 2026 rate hikes. The June FOMC dot plot shifted the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection to 3.8%, with nine of 19 officials now seeing at least one 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, while labor market data remain stable with unemployment near 4.2-4.3%. This contrasts with many economists' hold forecasts but aligns with futures pricing roughly 41 basis points of tightening, elevating the 25-basis-point outcome to 42.5% implied probability. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and incoming inflation releases will test whether resilient growth and price pressures sustain this path or allow stabilization.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$287,468Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% amid Middle East supply shocks and energy pressures, has driven the hawkish tilt in market-implied odds for 2026 rate hikes. The June FOMC dot plot shifted the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection to 3.8%, with nine of 19 officials now seeing at least one 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, while labor market data remain stable with unemployment near 4.2-4.3%. This contrasts with many economists' hold forecasts but aligns with futures pricing roughly 41 basis points of tightening, elevating the 25-basis-point outcome to 42.5% implied probability. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and incoming inflation releases will test whether resilient growth and price pressures sustain this path or allow stabilization.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$287,468Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% amid Middle East supply shocks and energy pressures, has driven the hawkish tilt in market-implied odds for 2026 rate hikes. The June FOMC dot plot shifted the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection to 3.8%, with nine of 19 officials now seeing at least one 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, while labor market data remain stable with unemployment near 4.2-4.3%. This contrasts with many economists' hold forecasts but aligns with futures pricing roughly 41 basis points of tightening, elevating the 25-basis-point outcome to 42.5% implied probability. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and incoming inflation releases will test whether resilient growth and price pressures sustain this path or allow stabilization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania