Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models to address cybersecurity risks while explicitly barring mandatory licensing or pre-clearance requirements. This followed the shelving of an earlier draft amid industry concerns over competitiveness. Subsequent administration actions and statements, including a September 14, 2026, rejection of calls for additional limits, have reinforced emphasis on innovation, export promotion, and targeted enforcement against AI-enabled crimes rather than broad restrictions. Prior 2025 orders focused on removing regulatory barriers and advancing American AI dominance. Trader assessments of future restrictive orders reflect these patterns of limited intervention alongside ongoing implementation of existing frameworks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTrump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
7%
October 31
40%
December 31
50%
$272 Wol.
September 30
$268 Wol.
7%
October 31
$0 Wol.
40%
December 31
$5 Wol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models to address cybersecurity risks while explicitly barring mandatory licensing or pre-clearance requirements. This followed the shelving of an earlier draft amid industry concerns over competitiveness. Subsequent administration actions and statements, including a September 14, 2026, rejection of calls for additional limits, have reinforced emphasis on innovation, export promotion, and targeted enforcement against AI-enabled crimes rather than broad restrictions. Prior 2025 orders focused on removing regulatory barriers and advancing American AI dominance. Trader assessments of future restrictive orders reflect these patterns of limited intervention alongside ongoing implementation of existing frameworks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$272Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models to address cybersecurity risks while explicitly barring mandatory licensing or pre-clearance requirements. This followed the shelving of an earlier draft amid industry concerns over competitiveness. Subsequent administration actions and statements, including a September 14, 2026, rejection of calls for additional limits, have reinforced emphasis on innovation, export promotion, and targeted enforcement against AI-enabled crimes rather than broad restrictions. Prior 2025 orders focused on removing regulatory barriers and advancing American AI dominance. Trader assessments of future restrictive orders reflect these patterns of limited intervention alongside ongoing implementation of existing frameworks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$272Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models to address cybersecurity risks while explicitly barring mandatory licensing or pre-clearance requirements. This followed the shelving of an earlier draft amid industry concerns over competitiveness. Subsequent administration actions and statements, including a September 14, 2026, rejection of calls for additional limits, have reinforced emphasis on innovation, export promotion, and targeted enforcement against AI-enabled crimes rather than broad restrictions. Prior 2025 orders focused on removing regulatory barriers and advancing American AI dominance. Trader assessments of future restrictive orders reflect these patterns of limited intervention alongside ongoing implementation of existing frameworks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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