Trump’s Truth Social output has averaged roughly 19 posts per day in 2026, producing a baseline near 152 posts over any eight-day stretch, yet frequent bursts well above 30 posts in a single session have pushed recent weekly totals into the 180–199 range. The current 50.5% implied probability on 200+ reflects trader expectations that mid-September political activity—midterm endorsements, convention follow-through, and routine use of AI-generated content—will sustain or exceed the elevated pace seen during the Labor Day weekend. Historical patterns show volume rising sharply around elections, policy announcements, and weekend social-media sessions, while quieter periods revert toward the annual mean. Market pricing therefore embeds the likelihood of at least one or two high-activity days within the September 15–22 window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano200+ 51%
160-179 18%
180-199 16%
140-159 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 22, 2026
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
6%
120-139
8%
140-159
12%
160-179
18%
180-199
16%
200+
51%
200+ 51%
160-179 18%
180-199 16%
140-159 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 22, 2026
<20
$40 Wol.
1%
20-39
$12 Wol.
1%
40-59
$12 Wol.
1%
60-79
$0 Wol.
1%
80-99
$20 Wol.
3%
100-119
$20 Wol.
6%
120-139
$40 Wol.
8%
140-159
$77 Wol.
12%
160-179
$58 Wol.
18%
180-199
$54 Wol.
16%
200+
$23 Wol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trump’s Truth Social output has averaged roughly 19 posts per day in 2026, producing a baseline near 152 posts over any eight-day stretch, yet frequent bursts well above 30 posts in a single session have pushed recent weekly totals into the 180–199 range. The current 50.5% implied probability on 200+ reflects trader expectations that mid-September political activity—midterm endorsements, convention follow-through, and routine use of AI-generated content—will sustain or exceed the elevated pace seen during the Labor Day weekend. Historical patterns show volume rising sharply around elections, policy announcements, and weekend social-media sessions, while quieter periods revert toward the annual mean. Market pricing therefore embeds the likelihood of at least one or two high-activity days within the September 15–22 window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$356Data zakończenia
Sep 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trump’s Truth Social output has averaged roughly 19 posts per day in 2026, producing a baseline near 152 posts over any eight-day stretch, yet frequent bursts well above 30 posts in a single session have pushed recent weekly totals into the 180–199 range. The current 50.5% implied probability on 200+ reflects trader expectations that mid-September political activity—midterm endorsements, convention follow-through, and routine use of AI-generated content—will sustain or exceed the elevated pace seen during the Labor Day weekend. Historical patterns show volume rising sharply around elections, policy announcements, and weekend social-media sessions, while quieter periods revert toward the annual mean. Market pricing therefore embeds the likelihood of at least one or two high-activity days within the September 15–22 window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 15, 12:00 PM ET and September 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wolumen
$356Data zakończenia
Sep 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trump’s Truth Social output has averaged roughly 19 posts per day in 2026, producing a baseline near 152 posts over any eight-day stretch, yet frequent bursts well above 30 posts in a single session have pushed recent weekly totals into the 180–199 range. The current 50.5% implied probability on 200+ reflects trader expectations that mid-September political activity—midterm endorsements, convention follow-through, and routine use of AI-generated content—will sustain or exceed the elevated pace seen during the Labor Day weekend. Historical patterns show volume rising sharply around elections, policy announcements, and weekend social-media sessions, while quieter periods revert toward the annual mean. Market pricing therefore embeds the likelihood of at least one or two high-activity days within the September 15–22 window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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