Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 29 project a Tokyo minimum of exactly 20°C for August 30 under cloudy skies with possible early rain and light northerly winds shifting southerly, consistent with recent overnight lows near 20–22°C amid elevated humidity and limited radiative cooling. Multiple ensemble model runs and observational trends from nearby stations reinforce this narrow range, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 20°C. A realistic shift below 20°C would require sharper-than-expected clearing overnight or stronger northerly advection of cooler air, while exceeding 20°C could occur if cloud cover dissipates earlier or urban heat effects intensify—though current guidance shows low likelihood of either outcome before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
20°C 99.6%
19°C <1%
21°C <1%
18°C <1%
$15,568 Wol.
$15,568 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
100%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
20°C 99.6%
19°C <1%
21°C <1%
18°C <1%
$15,568 Wol.
$15,568 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$1,599 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$1,117 Wol.
1%
19°C
$1,768 Wol.
1%
20°C
$1,693 Wol.
100%
21°C
$2,715 Wol.
1%
22°C
$3,699 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$1,719 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$392 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$361 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$252 Wol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$252 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 29 project a Tokyo minimum of exactly 20°C for August 30 under cloudy skies with possible early rain and light northerly winds shifting southerly, consistent with recent overnight lows near 20–22°C amid elevated humidity and limited radiative cooling. Multiple ensemble model runs and observational trends from nearby stations reinforce this narrow range, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 20°C. A realistic shift below 20°C would require sharper-than-expected clearing overnight or stronger northerly advection of cooler air, while exceeding 20°C could occur if cloud cover dissipates earlier or urban heat effects intensify—though current guidance shows low likelihood of either outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$15,568Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 29 project a Tokyo minimum of exactly 20°C for August 30 under cloudy skies with possible early rain and light northerly winds shifting southerly, consistent with recent overnight lows near 20–22°C amid elevated humidity and limited radiative cooling. Multiple ensemble model runs and observational trends from nearby stations reinforce this narrow range, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 20°C. A realistic shift below 20°C would require sharper-than-expected clearing overnight or stronger northerly advection of cooler air, while exceeding 20°C could occur if cloud cover dissipates earlier or urban heat effects intensify—though current guidance shows low likelihood of either outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$15,568Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 29 project a Tokyo minimum of exactly 20°C for August 30 under cloudy skies with possible early rain and light northerly winds shifting southerly, consistent with recent overnight lows near 20–22°C amid elevated humidity and limited radiative cooling. Multiple ensemble model runs and observational trends from nearby stations reinforce this narrow range, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 20°C. A realistic shift below 20°C would require sharper-than-expected clearing overnight or stronger northerly advection of cooler air, while exceeding 20°C could occur if cloud cover dissipates earlier or urban heat effects intensify—though current guidance shows low likelihood of either outcome before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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