Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, recently enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, is the dominant driver capping Manila daytime highs near 29–31 °C through September 1, consistent with PAGASA outlooks for occasional to moderate rains and widespread cloud cover. Official model guidance and station data show typical early-September maxima around 30 °C under these conditions, with thunderstorms and high humidity limiting radiative heating and peak temperatures. Market-implied odds favoring 31–33 °C reflect trader assessment of brief clearing windows or slight model warm biases, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ align with historical monsoon suppression of extremes. Updated PAGASA briefings and 48-hour model runs will refine landfall and intensity effects ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on September 1?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 1?
32°C 36%
31°C 27%
34°C 19%
33°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
13%
31°C
27%
32°C
36%
33°C
19%
34°C
19%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 36%
31°C 27%
34°C 19%
33°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$223 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Wol.
1%
29°C
$31 Wol.
3%
30°C
$33 Wol.
13%
31°C
$57 Wol.
27%
32°C
$63 Wol.
36%
33°C
$0 Wol.
19%
34°C
$0 Wol.
19%
35°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$121 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, recently enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, is the dominant driver capping Manila daytime highs near 29–31 °C through September 1, consistent with PAGASA outlooks for occasional to moderate rains and widespread cloud cover. Official model guidance and station data show typical early-September maxima around 30 °C under these conditions, with thunderstorms and high humidity limiting radiative heating and peak temperatures. Market-implied odds favoring 31–33 °C reflect trader assessment of brief clearing windows or slight model warm biases, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ align with historical monsoon suppression of extremes. Updated PAGASA briefings and 48-hour model runs will refine landfall and intensity effects ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$528Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, recently enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, is the dominant driver capping Manila daytime highs near 29–31 °C through September 1, consistent with PAGASA outlooks for occasional to moderate rains and widespread cloud cover. Official model guidance and station data show typical early-September maxima around 30 °C under these conditions, with thunderstorms and high humidity limiting radiative heating and peak temperatures. Market-implied odds favoring 31–33 °C reflect trader assessment of brief clearing windows or slight model warm biases, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ align with historical monsoon suppression of extremes. Updated PAGASA briefings and 48-hour model runs will refine landfall and intensity effects ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$528Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, recently enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, is the dominant driver capping Manila daytime highs near 29–31 °C through September 1, consistent with PAGASA outlooks for occasional to moderate rains and widespread cloud cover. Official model guidance and station data show typical early-September maxima around 30 °C under these conditions, with thunderstorms and high humidity limiting radiative heating and peak temperatures. Market-implied odds favoring 31–33 °C reflect trader assessment of brief clearing windows or slight model warm biases, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ align with historical monsoon suppression of extremes. Updated PAGASA briefings and 48-hour model runs will refine landfall and intensity effects ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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