**Forecast models and official guidance from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) place the expected daily maximum in São Paulo on August 4, 2026, in the 25–27 °C range, directly supporting the market’s concentration on 26 °C and 27 °C outcomes.** August marks the final month of the Southern Hemisphere winter, when the city typically sees highs of 22–24 °C under the influence of drier subtropical high pressure. This season, INMET has flagged above-average temperatures across São Paulo state, driven by a persistent warm air mass and reduced cloud cover that allows stronger daytime solar heating. Current numerical weather model consensus, including recent runs, projects an afternoon peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds, limiting further warming. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary INMET or airport station; any late-day clearing or a slight shift in the steering flow could push the reading one degree higher or keep it capped at 26 °C. With the trading day already underway, the narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects traders’ assessment of these modest but still uncertain forecast details.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 4?
26°C 50%
27°C 30%
25°C 15%
28°C 11%
$13,972 Wol.
$13,972 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
15%
26°C
50%
27°C
30%
28°C
11%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 50%
27°C 30%
25°C 15%
28°C 11%
$13,972 Wol.
$13,972 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
$915 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$901 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$981 Wol.
1%
25°C
$2,318 Wol.
15%
26°C
$3,858 Wol.
50%
27°C
$1,896 Wol.
30%
28°C
$1,465 Wol.
11%
29°C
$589 Wol.
1%
30°C
$324 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$358 Wol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$367 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) place the expected daily maximum in São Paulo on August 4, 2026, in the 25–27 °C range, directly supporting the market’s concentration on 26 °C and 27 °C outcomes.**
August marks the final month of the Southern Hemisphere winter, when the city typically sees highs of 22–24 °C under the influence of drier subtropical high pressure. This season, INMET has flagged above-average temperatures across São Paulo state, driven by a persistent warm air mass and reduced cloud cover that allows stronger daytime solar heating. Current numerical weather model consensus, including recent runs, projects an afternoon peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds, limiting further warming.
Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary INMET or airport station; any late-day clearing or a slight shift in the steering flow could push the reading one degree higher or keep it capped at 26 °C. With the trading day already underway, the narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects traders’ assessment of these modest but still uncertain forecast details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,972Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) place the expected daily maximum in São Paulo on August 4, 2026, in the 25–27 °C range, directly supporting the market’s concentration on 26 °C and 27 °C outcomes.**
August marks the final month of the Southern Hemisphere winter, when the city typically sees highs of 22–24 °C under the influence of drier subtropical high pressure. This season, INMET has flagged above-average temperatures across São Paulo state, driven by a persistent warm air mass and reduced cloud cover that allows stronger daytime solar heating. Current numerical weather model consensus, including recent runs, projects an afternoon peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds, limiting further warming.
Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary INMET or airport station; any late-day clearing or a slight shift in the steering flow could push the reading one degree higher or keep it capped at 26 °C. With the trading day already underway, the narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects traders’ assessment of these modest but still uncertain forecast details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$13,972Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) place the expected daily maximum in São Paulo on August 4, 2026, in the 25–27 °C range, directly supporting the market’s concentration on 26 °C and 27 °C outcomes.** August marks the final month of the Southern Hemisphere winter, when the city typically sees highs of 22–24 °C under the influence of drier subtropical high pressure. This season, INMET has flagged above-average temperatures across São Paulo state, driven by a persistent warm air mass and reduced cloud cover that allows stronger daytime solar heating. Current numerical weather model consensus, including recent runs, projects an afternoon peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds, limiting further warming. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary INMET or airport station; any late-day clearing or a slight shift in the steering flow could push the reading one degree higher or keep it capped at 26 °C. With the trading day already underway, the narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects traders’ assessment of these modest but still uncertain forecast details.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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