Current forecast models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Paris under a strong high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air and mostly clear skies on August 12, supporting daytime highs near 34–36°C. These conditions, combined with the urban heat island effect and minimal cloud cover for maximum insolation, explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35°C (48.5%) and 34°C (27.5%). Recent ensemble runs indicate limited cooling overnight, keeping the daily maximum elevated, while any increase in humidity or scattered convection could cap values closer to 34°C. Updated model guidance and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 19%
33°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
26%
35°C
49%
36°C
19%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 19%
33°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$1,850 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$171 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$711 Wol.
<1%
32°C
$294 Wol.
1%
33°C
$554 Wol.
4%
34°C
$880 Wol.
26%
35°C
$1,168 Wol.
49%
36°C
$479 Wol.
19%
37°C
$335 Wol.
4%
38°C
$211 Wol.
1%
39°C or higher
$231 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Paris under a strong high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air and mostly clear skies on August 12, supporting daytime highs near 34–36°C. These conditions, combined with the urban heat island effect and minimal cloud cover for maximum insolation, explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35°C (48.5%) and 34°C (27.5%). Recent ensemble runs indicate limited cooling overnight, keeping the daily maximum elevated, while any increase in humidity or scattered convection could cap values closer to 34°C. Updated model guidance and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,853Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Paris under a strong high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air and mostly clear skies on August 12, supporting daytime highs near 34–36°C. These conditions, combined with the urban heat island effect and minimal cloud cover for maximum insolation, explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35°C (48.5%) and 34°C (27.5%). Recent ensemble runs indicate limited cooling overnight, keeping the daily maximum elevated, while any increase in humidity or scattered convection could cap values closer to 34°C. Updated model guidance and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6,853Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Paris under a strong high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air and mostly clear skies on August 12, supporting daytime highs near 34–36°C. These conditions, combined with the urban heat island effect and minimal cloud cover for maximum insolation, explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35°C (48.5%) and 34°C (27.5%). Recent ensemble runs indicate limited cooling overnight, keeping the daily maximum elevated, while any increase in humidity or scattered convection could cap values closer to 34°C. Updated model guidance and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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