The active southwest monsoon over Luzon continues to moderate daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 18, with official PAGASA guidance projecting a 25–32°C range and 60% rain probability alongside potential for 50–100 mm of rainfall. Persistent cloud cover and showers limit solar insolation, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Recent model consensus and observations align with this clustering around 28–29°C rather than the seasonal average near 30–31°C, as stronger monsoon flow suppresses peaks above 30°C. Any localized breaks in cloud could allow brief warming toward 30°C, though current patterns show stability with minimal risk of significant shifts before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 18?
28°C 45%
27°C 27%
29°C 21%
26°C 6%
NOWE
$12,331 Wol.
NOWE
$12,331 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
27%
28°C
45%
29°C
21%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 45%
27°C 27%
29°C 21%
26°C 6%
NOWE
$12,331 Wol.
NOWE
$12,331 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
$102 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$132 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$272 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$396 Wol.
1%
26°C
$958 Wol.
6%
27°C
$2,874 Wol.
27%
28°C
$2,809 Wol.
45%
29°C
$2,464 Wol.
21%
30°C
$924 Wol.
5%
31°C
$569 Wol.
2%
32°C or higher
$871 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon over Luzon continues to moderate daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 18, with official PAGASA guidance projecting a 25–32°C range and 60% rain probability alongside potential for 50–100 mm of rainfall. Persistent cloud cover and showers limit solar insolation, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Recent model consensus and observations align with this clustering around 28–29°C rather than the seasonal average near 30–31°C, as stronger monsoon flow suppresses peaks above 30°C. Any localized breaks in cloud could allow brief warming toward 30°C, though current patterns show stability with minimal risk of significant shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,331Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon over Luzon continues to moderate daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 18, with official PAGASA guidance projecting a 25–32°C range and 60% rain probability alongside potential for 50–100 mm of rainfall. Persistent cloud cover and showers limit solar insolation, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Recent model consensus and observations align with this clustering around 28–29°C rather than the seasonal average near 30–31°C, as stronger monsoon flow suppresses peaks above 30°C. Any localized breaks in cloud could allow brief warming toward 30°C, though current patterns show stability with minimal risk of significant shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,331Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The active southwest monsoon over Luzon continues to moderate daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 18, with official PAGASA guidance projecting a 25–32°C range and 60% rain probability alongside potential for 50–100 mm of rainfall. Persistent cloud cover and showers limit solar insolation, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Recent model consensus and observations align with this clustering around 28–29°C rather than the seasonal average near 30–31°C, as stronger monsoon flow suppresses peaks above 30°C. Any localized breaks in cloud could allow brief warming toward 30°C, though current patterns show stability with minimal risk of significant shifts before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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