Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET position the Madrid high for August 21 near 29–32 °C, with model consensus favoring 30–31 °C under weakening high pressure and increased Atlantic flow after an earlier heat spell. Official observations show daily maxima reached 37–38 °C earlier in August before gradual cooling, consistent with typical late-summer variability driven by subtropical ridge positioning and diurnal heating under clear skies. This places the market-implied probability peak at 31 °C (50.5 %) and 32 °C (24.0 %), reflecting trader weighting of ensemble guidance and resolution criteria tied to official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and the final 48-hour forecast window will determine any late shifts toward the 30 °C or 33 °C outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
31°C 50%
32°C 25%
30°C 19%
33°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
19%
31°C
50%
32°C
25%
33°C
6%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 50%
32°C 25%
30°C 19%
33°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$274 Wol.
1%
28°C
$170 Wol.
1%
29°C
$82 Wol.
4%
30°C
$397 Wol.
19%
31°C
$285 Wol.
50%
32°C
$732 Wol.
25%
33°C
$116 Wol.
6%
34°C
$238 Wol.
<1%
35°C
$143 Wol.
2%
36°C
$295 Wol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$313 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET position the Madrid high for August 21 near 29–32 °C, with model consensus favoring 30–31 °C under weakening high pressure and increased Atlantic flow after an earlier heat spell. Official observations show daily maxima reached 37–38 °C earlier in August before gradual cooling, consistent with typical late-summer variability driven by subtropical ridge positioning and diurnal heating under clear skies. This places the market-implied probability peak at 31 °C (50.5 %) and 32 °C (24.0 %), reflecting trader weighting of ensemble guidance and resolution criteria tied to official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and the final 48-hour forecast window will determine any late shifts toward the 30 °C or 33 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,773Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET position the Madrid high for August 21 near 29–32 °C, with model consensus favoring 30–31 °C under weakening high pressure and increased Atlantic flow after an earlier heat spell. Official observations show daily maxima reached 37–38 °C earlier in August before gradual cooling, consistent with typical late-summer variability driven by subtropical ridge positioning and diurnal heating under clear skies. This places the market-implied probability peak at 31 °C (50.5 %) and 32 °C (24.0 %), reflecting trader weighting of ensemble guidance and resolution criteria tied to official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and the final 48-hour forecast window will determine any late shifts toward the 30 °C or 33 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,773Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET position the Madrid high for August 21 near 29–32 °C, with model consensus favoring 30–31 °C under weakening high pressure and increased Atlantic flow after an earlier heat spell. Official observations show daily maxima reached 37–38 °C earlier in August before gradual cooling, consistent with typical late-summer variability driven by subtropical ridge positioning and diurnal heating under clear skies. This places the market-implied probability peak at 31 °C (50.5 %) and 32 °C (24.0 %), reflecting trader weighting of ensemble guidance and resolution criteria tied to official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and the final 48-hour forecast window will determine any late shifts toward the 30 °C or 33 °C outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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