Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 39%
1.5–2.0% 38.3%
>2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 8.7%
$59,829 Wol.
$59,829 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
38%
2.0–2.5%
39%
>2.5%
16%
2.0–2.5% 39%
1.5–2.0% 38.3%
>2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 8.7%
$59,829 Wol.
$59,829 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,600 Wol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,333 Wol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,907 Wol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$7,276 Wol.
38%
2.0–2.5%
$7,623 Wol.
39%
>2.5%
$16,090 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$59,829Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$59,829Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth ranges for full-year 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, with strength in consumer spending and business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—offset by softer government outlays and net exports. Consensus projections from the IMF, FOMC, and private forecasters center near 2.1–2.3% for the year, supported by productivity gains yet tempered by elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and restrictive monetary policy. The September 30 Q3 GDP release and upcoming FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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