Recent inflation data showing acceleration to 6.32% year-over-year by late August, alongside sustained lending growth and more expansionary fiscal policy, have reinforced the Bank of Russia's cautious approach to easing. The central bank revised its 2026 key rate path upward in July after cutting to 14% and has flagged risks from budget deficits and credit dynamics that limit further reductions. Analyst surveys ahead of the September 11 meeting heavily favor holding steady at the current level, aligning with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to no change while leaving modest room for a small cut if incoming figures improve. An increase remains improbable absent major upside inflation surprises.