Traders assign an 83.5% probability that the United States will not invade Iran before 2027 because the ongoing conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, has remained confined to air and missile exchanges, naval blockades, and economic sanctions rather than ground operations. The June memorandum of understanding expired in mid-August without resolving core disputes over the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s nuclear program, yet both sides have shifted toward attrition through sanctions, shipping restrictions, and limited strikes instead of committing to a large-scale invasion. Recent statements from U.S. officials emphasize sustained pressure and diplomacy via intermediaries such as Oman and Pakistan, while military analyses highlight the substantial troop requirements, casualties, and risks that make a full invasion unlikely before the end of 2026. This pattern aligns with trader consensus favoring continued hybrid measures over direct territorial control.