Mainstream parties' longstanding firewall against cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the dominant factor behind the 65.5% implied probability for "No." No other major party has signaled willingness to form coalitions or tolerate AfD-led governments at the state level, forcing the party to secure an absolute majority of seats on its own. In Saxony-Anhalt, where polls place AfD near or above 40% ahead of the September 6 election, smaller parties falling below the 5% threshold could deliver such a majority, yet recent developments show CDU, SPD, and others preparing procedural barriers and information restrictions to limit any AfD administration. Similar dynamics apply to upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where AfD leads but faces the same exclusionary consensus among competitors. This sustained political isolation, rather than polling alone, shapes trader expectations that AfD participation in any state government will be blocked through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.Mainstream parties' longstanding firewall against cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the dominant factor behind the 65.5% implied probability for "No." No other major party has signaled willingness to form coalitions or tolerate AfD-led governments at the state level, forcing the party to secure an absolute majority of seats on its own. In Saxony-Anhalt, where polls place AfD near or above 40% ahead of the September 6 election, smaller parties falling below the 5% threshold could deliver such a majority, yet recent developments show CDU, SPD, and others preparing procedural barriers and information restrictions to limit any AfD administration. Similar dynamics apply to upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where AfD leads but faces the same exclusionary consensus among competitors. This sustained political isolation, rather than polling alone, shapes trader expectations that AfD participation in any state government will be blocked through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$3,034終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.Mainstream parties' longstanding firewall against cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the dominant factor behind the 65.5% implied probability for "No." No other major party has signaled willingness to form coalitions or tolerate AfD-led governments at the state level, forcing the party to secure an absolute majority of seats on its own. In Saxony-Anhalt, where polls place AfD near or above 40% ahead of the September 6 election, smaller parties falling below the 5% threshold could deliver such a majority, yet recent developments show CDU, SPD, and others preparing procedural barriers and information restrictions to limit any AfD administration. Similar dynamics apply to upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where AfD leads but faces the same exclusionary consensus among competitors. This sustained political isolation, rather than polling alone, shapes trader expectations that AfD participation in any state government will be blocked through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify.
If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
音量
$3,034終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Mainstream parties' longstanding firewall against cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the dominant factor behind the 65.5% implied probability for "No." No other major party has signaled willingness to form coalitions or tolerate AfD-led governments at the state level, forcing the party to secure an absolute majority of seats on its own. In Saxony-Anhalt, where polls place AfD near or above 40% ahead of the September 6 election, smaller parties falling below the 5% threshold could deliver such a majority, yet recent developments show CDU, SPD, and others preparing procedural barriers and information restrictions to limit any AfD administration. Similar dynamics apply to upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where AfD leads but faces the same exclusionary consensus among competitors. This sustained political isolation, rather than polling alone, shapes trader expectations that AfD participation in any state government will be blocked through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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