Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading on roughly 19–22 percent, with the CDU and AfD close behind at 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD trailing near 12–15 percent. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner has faced criticism over crisis management, prompting a change in the CDU’s top candidate to Stefan Evers. No two-party combination currently reaches a majority, directing attention toward three-party options such as a rot-rot-grün alliance of Die Linke, Greens and SPD or a Kenia coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens. Housing policy, particularly socialization demands from Die Linke, remains a key sticking point in negotiations. The short campaign window and volatile polling leave coalition outcomes highly sensitive to final voter turnout and late shifts among smaller parties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/31
グリューネ
86%
SPD
86%
リンク
75%
CDU
46%
FDP
6%
BSW
4%
AfD
2%
FW
1%
$4,340 Vol.
グリューネ
$83 Vol.
86%
SPD
$177 Vol.
86%
リンク
$833 Vol.
75%
CDU
$848 Vol.
46%
FDP
$209 Vol.
6%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
FW
$641 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading on roughly 19–22 percent, with the CDU and AfD close behind at 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD trailing near 12–15 percent. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner has faced criticism over crisis management, prompting a change in the CDU’s top candidate to Stefan Evers. No two-party combination currently reaches a majority, directing attention toward three-party options such as a rot-rot-grün alliance of Die Linke, Greens and SPD or a Kenia coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens. Housing policy, particularly socialization demands from Die Linke, remains a key sticking point in negotiations. The short campaign window and volatile polling leave coalition outcomes highly sensitive to final voter turnout and late shifts among smaller parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$4,340終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading on roughly 19–22 percent, with the CDU and AfD close behind at 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD trailing near 12–15 percent. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner has faced criticism over crisis management, prompting a change in the CDU’s top candidate to Stefan Evers. No two-party combination currently reaches a majority, directing attention toward three-party options such as a rot-rot-grün alliance of Die Linke, Greens and SPD or a Kenia coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens. Housing policy, particularly socialization demands from Die Linke, remains a key sticking point in negotiations. The short campaign window and volatile polling leave coalition outcomes highly sensitive to final voter turnout and late shifts among smaller parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
音量
$4,340終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading on roughly 19–22 percent, with the CDU and AfD close behind at 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD trailing near 12–15 percent. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner has faced criticism over crisis management, prompting a change in the CDU’s top candidate to Stefan Evers. No two-party combination currently reaches a majority, directing attention toward three-party options such as a rot-rot-grün alliance of Die Linke, Greens and SPD or a Kenia coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens. Housing policy, particularly socialization demands from Die Linke, remains a key sticking point in negotiations. The short campaign window and volatile polling leave coalition outcomes highly sensitive to final voter turnout and late shifts among smaller parties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問