Recent polls place the Greens at 4–5% in the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, leaving their parliamentary entry dependent on clearing the 5% threshold amid an AfD lead near 42%. Trader consensus reflects this narrow margin, with recent surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix showing the party fluctuating around the hurdle while other smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW also hover near or below it. The Greens’ campaign, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, stresses tactical second votes to maintain a democratic presence and block an AfD majority or sole government. Tight polling averages, combined with typical sampling error and potential late shifts in turnout or strategic voting among centrist and left-leaning blocs, sustain the balanced probability for clearing or missing the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Over
52% 確率
$11,450 Vol.
$11,450 Vol.
2026/09/06
Over
52% 確率
$11,450 Vol.
$11,450 Vol.
2026/09/06
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the Greens at 4–5% in the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, leaving their parliamentary entry dependent on clearing the 5% threshold amid an AfD lead near 42%. Trader consensus reflects this narrow margin, with recent surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix showing the party fluctuating around the hurdle while other smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW also hover near or below it. The Greens’ campaign, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, stresses tactical second votes to maintain a democratic presence and block an AfD majority or sole government. Tight polling averages, combined with typical sampling error and potential late shifts in turnout or strategic voting among centrist and left-leaning blocs, sustain the balanced probability for clearing or missing the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
音量
$11,450終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the Greens at 4–5% in the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, leaving their parliamentary entry dependent on clearing the 5% threshold amid an AfD lead near 42%. Trader consensus reflects this narrow margin, with recent surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix showing the party fluctuating around the hurdle while other smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW also hover near or below it. The Greens’ campaign, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, stresses tactical second votes to maintain a democratic presence and block an AfD majority or sole government. Tight polling averages, combined with typical sampling error and potential late shifts in turnout or strategic voting among centrist and left-leaning blocs, sustain the balanced probability for clearing or missing the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
音量
$11,450終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls place the Greens at 4–5% in the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, leaving their parliamentary entry dependent on clearing the 5% threshold amid an AfD lead near 42%. Trader consensus reflects this narrow margin, with recent surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix showing the party fluctuating around the hurdle while other smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW also hover near or below it. The Greens’ campaign, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, stresses tactical second votes to maintain a democratic presence and block an AfD majority or sole government. Tight polling averages, combined with typical sampling error and potential late shifts in turnout or strategic voting among centrist and left-leaning blocs, sustain the balanced probability for clearing or missing the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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