Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$304,963 Vol.
2026/12/31
スティーブ・ウィトコフ
43%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
41%
モハンマド・バゲル・ガリーバーフ
42%
アッバース・アラーグチ
34%
イシャク・ダール
31%
J.D.バンス
31%
カゼム・ガリババディ
24%
ニック・スチュワート
20%
マジド・タクト＝ラヴァンチ
18%
バドル・ビン・ハマド・アル・ブサイディ
17%
ラファエル・グロッシ
17%
モハンマド・ビン・アブドゥルラフマン・アール＝サーニー
15%
ドナルド・トランプ
14%
マルコ・ルビオ
13%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
13%
アフマド・バヒディ
11%
ピート・ヘグセス
9%
エスマイル・ガアーニ
7%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
5%
$304,963 Vol.
スティーブ・ウィトコフ
$17,730 Vol.
43%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
$14,387 Vol.
41%
モハンマド・バゲル・ガリーバーフ
$11,943 Vol.
42%
アッバース・アラーグチ
$7,573 Vol.
34%
イシャク・ダール
$17,540 Vol.
31%
J.D.バンス
$20,976 Vol.
31%
カゼム・ガリババディ
$16,478 Vol.
24%
ニック・スチュワート
$11,128 Vol.
20%
マジド・タクト＝ラヴァンチ
$16,946 Vol.
18%
バドル・ビン・ハマド・アル・ブサイディ
$29,145 Vol.
17%
ラファエル・グロッシ
$18,288 Vol.
17%
モハンマド・ビン・アブドゥルラフマン・アール＝サーニー
$28,743 Vol.
15%
ドナルド・トランプ
$7,456 Vol.
14%
マルコ・ルビオ
$13,311 Vol.
13%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$19,279 Vol.
13%
アフマド・バヒディ
$7,856 Vol.
11%
ピート・ヘグセス
$15,413 Vol.
9%
エスマイル・ガアーニ
$10,890 Vol.
7%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$19,880 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
音量
$304,963終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$304,963終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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