Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s September 15-16 FOMC press conference follows his hawkish August 28 Jackson Hole speech, where he highlighted PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and 4.1% over six months, noting that 54% of components exceed 3% gains and underlying trends have not meaningfully improved. Warsh stressed the need for “confident” progress toward the 2% target at sufficient speed or else “we have work to do,” while describing financial conditions as insufficiently restrictive and rejecting traditional forward guidance. Markets now price a roughly 57% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, with the September 11 CPI release serving as the immediate catalyst that could shape his tone on rate-path expectations, inflation metrics beyond PCE, and any shift in the Fed’s reaction function.